{"id":23541,"date":"2022-06-01T02:01:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-01T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autosector.com\/?p=23541"},"modified":"2022-06-01T02:01:00","modified_gmt":"2022-06-01T06:01:00","slug":"this-is-where-electric-vehicle-adoption-is-headed-between-now-and-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/?p=23541","title":{"rendered":"This is where electric vehicle adoption is headed between 2022 and 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

BloombergNEF<\/a> today released its seventh annual Electric Vehicle Outlook<\/em>. While the study also makes longer-term predictions, here\u2019s where its researchers think electric vehicle adoption is going between now and 2025.<\/p>\n

Electric vehicle adoption to 2025<\/h2>\n

As Electrek<\/em> reported last week, the number of consumers looking to buy EVs globally has hit 52%, according to the latest\u00a0EY Mobility Consumer Index<\/a>\u00a0(MCI). This is the first time 50% has been exceeded, and it represents a rise of 22 percentage points in just two years.<\/p>\n

BloombergNEF\u2019s findings are consistent with the EY study, as BloombergNEF asserts that electric vehicle adoption is set to continue to rise sharply to 2025 as global policy pressure\u00a0grows, more electric car models become available, and consumer interest increases. <\/p>\n

Bloomberg NEF projects that plug-in\u00a0vehicle sales will rise from 6.6 million in 2021 to 20.6 million in 2025. Plug-in vehicles are predicted to make up 23% of new passenger vehicle sales globally in 2025, up from\u00a0just under 10% in 2021. Three-quarters of those will be fully electric. <\/p>\n

The researchers don\u2019t see plug-in hybrids gaining a significant share of the market outside Europe, and they expect them to peak globally\u00a0around 2026. <\/p>\n

Fuel cell vehicle sales are expected to increase slightly due to a push in China, but overall, will have\u00a0no meaningful impact in the passenger vehicle segment.<\/p>\n

EV adoption will vary by country<\/h2>\n

The EV share of sales in some markets will be higher, with EVs reaching 39% of sales in\u00a02025 in China and Europe. Germany, the UK, and France are predicted to reach between 40-50% in 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n

China and Europe are anticipated to account for a whopping 80% of EV sales in 2025, with adoption lagging elsewhere. <\/p>\n

The US market is forecast to be a bit of a laggard. It\u2019s expected to pick up from 2023 but will likely still only represent 15% of the global electric vehicle market in 2025. The EY study noted that consumers in Australia (38%) and the US (29%) are the least committed to switching to EVs.<\/p>\n

The gas car forecast<\/h2>\n

Bloomberg NEF asserts that the rising cost of batteries will not derail near-term EV adoption. Its researchers write in the report\u2019s executive summary:<\/p>\n

\n

Some of the factors that\u00a0are driving high battery raw material costs \u2013 war, inflation, trade friction \u2013 are also pushing the\u00a0price of gasoline and diesel to record highs, which is driving more consumer interest in EVs.\u00a0Internal combustion engine vehicles are also becoming more expensive to produce.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The acceleration in EV adoption means that combustion vehicle sales peaked globally in\u00a02017 and are now in permanent decline. By 2025 passenger ICE sales are 19% below their\u00a02017 peak. Managing the decline while investing in the future is a major challenge for some\u00a0legacy automakers.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The Bloomberg NEF researchers feel that the most important factor to note is the market shifting from being driven by policy to being driven by consumer demand.<\/p>\n

They rightfully point out that supply is now a greater constraint than demand in most markets. Until automakers can start to produce EVs at a scale and price range that meets demand (alongside the charging infrastructure for those new cars), a large number of consumers will have to wait a couple years \u2013 but not much longer\u2013 to drive electric.<\/p>\n

Read more:<\/strong> In a global tipping point, 52% of car buyers now want to purchase an EV \u2013 here\u2019s why<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.<\/em> More.<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n\n

Subscribe to Electrek on YouTube for exclusive videos<\/a> and subscribe to the podcast<\/a>.<\/p>\n