{"id":75127,"date":"2024-08-01T11:18:08","date_gmt":"2024-08-01T15:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/?p=75127"},"modified":"2024-08-01T11:18:08","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T15:18:08","slug":"tesla-full-self-driving-data-makes-elon-musk-reduce-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/?p=75127","title":{"rendered":"Tesla Full Self-Driving data makes Elon Musk lower expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\t\"Elon<\/figure>\n

Tesla still resists releasing its Full Self-Driving data, but early crowdsourced data shows that improvements are much more limited than CEO Elon Musk told us.<\/p>\n

He is now lowering expectations.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Over the last few months, Musk has hyped up Tesla\u2019s two latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) software update, 12.4 and 12.5. For 12.4, the CEO said that\u00a0it will come without steering wheel nag<\/a>\u00a0and it will be able to drive \u201c5 to 10x more miles per intervention<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Tesla ran into some issues in internal and limited external testing and decided not to do a wide-release of FSD 12.4.<\/p>\n

Regardless, we shared our concerns about Musk\u2019s claims in the first place since Tesla undoubtedly has FSD intervention data and it always refused to share it. Therefore, Tesla\u2019s lack of transparency regarding the data combined with Musk clearly guessing the improvement in intervention with a massive 5 to 10x margin doesn\u2019t add up to much credibility.<\/p>\n

As we previously reported, the best FSD data we have right now is crowdsourced<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With Tesla now rolling out FSD v12.5, the crowdsourced data is starting to come in, but it\u2019s still extremely limited. Nonetheless, and despite Tesla\u2019s resistance to releasing official data, Musk has commented on the crowdsource data, which many Tesla fans are already framing as positive:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

The CEO is talking about \u201cdoubling average miles between interventions\u201d with 12.5 this month when he was talking about a 5 to 10x increase with 12.4 last month.<\/p>\n

The data they are referring to is from Tesla FSD Tracker<\/a> and it is great data, but again, it is extremely limited with a total of 150,000 miles versus the 1.6 billion miles of data Tesla claims to have about FSD.<\/p>\n

Since the release of v12, the best data we have is about v12.3.6, which was the update that made it to the wider fleet:<\/p>\n

\"\"
Screenshot<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

When I say best data, it is still only limited to 24,000 miles, so take it with a grain of salt, but it does show only 28 miles between disengagement and 181 miles between \u201ccritical disengagement.\u201d<\/p>\n

The difference is that sometimes FSD drivers will disengage out of frustration or discomfort rather than a necessity for safety.<\/p>\n

Again, FSD 12.4\u2019s release was very limited and therefore, we barely have any data on it:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Now, as for the v12.5 data that some Tesla fans are already raving about, it\u2019s also super limited with 1,591 miles reported at the time of publishing:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

We are talking about only 44 miles between disengagement and 331 miles between critical disengagement.<\/p>\n

For comparison, Waymo, which, to be fair, uses a geo-fenced system, travels on average 95,000 miles between interventions.<\/p>\n

Electrek\u2019s Take<\/h2>\n

The truth is that it\u2019s way too early to be valuable data, but it\u2019s still enough to tell that Elon\u2019s claim of 5 to 10x improvement is likely nonsense.<\/p>\n

He is himself now talking about only doubling miles by the end of the month.<\/p>\n

Now, I don\u2019t want to dismiss the improvement either. If Tesla ends up doubling the miles between interventions with 12.5, it\u2019s impressive, but it needs to do that another 20x before it can reach the promised unsupervised level.<\/p>\n

At this pace, we are still years away even though Elon again said this year or next year just last month.<\/p>\n

Finally, the fact that Elon comments on limited crowdsourced data without releasing Tesla\u2019s actual data on FSD doesn\u2019t help the credibility.<\/p>\n

Tesla should back what it is saying with intervention data, and the only reason that I can think of why they are not showing it is that it looks bad.<\/p>\n

\n

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.<\/em> More.<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tesla still resists releasing its Full Self-Driving data, but early crowdsourced data shows that improvements are much more limited than CEO Elon Musk told us. He is now lowering expectations. Over the last few months, Musk has hyped up Tesla\u2019s two latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) software update, 12.4 and 12.5. For 12.4, the CEO said […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8313,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-e-cars"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=75127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=75127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=75127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=75127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}