{"id":81107,"date":"2025-03-11T18:37:54","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T22:37:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/?p=81107"},"modified":"2025-03-11T18:37:54","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T22:37:54","slug":"elon-musk-tesla-double-us-production-lets-do-the-math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/?p=81107","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk claims Tesla will double US production in next two years, let’s do the math"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n\t\"\"<\/figure>\n

Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years.<\/p>\n

What would that look like? Let\u2019s do the math.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cAs a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

This raises many questions, as Musk\u2019s phrasing of the statement suggests that Tesla is planning to add previously unannounced production capacity in response to Trump\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

\tAdvertisement – scroll for more content<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the reality could be different.<\/p>\n

What is Tesla\u2019s current production capacity in the US?<\/h2>\n

We only know Tesla\u2019s installed capacity, which is much different than its actual production rate.<\/p>\n

This is Tesla\u2019s latest disclosed global production capacity at the end of 2024:<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Region<\/th>\nModel<\/th>\nCapacity<\/th>\nStatus<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/td>\nModel S \/ Model X<\/td>\n100,000<\/td>\nProduction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Model 3 \/ Model Y<\/td>\n>550,000<\/td>\nProduction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shanghai<\/td>\nModel 3 \/ Model Y<\/td>\n>950,000<\/td>\nProduction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Berlin<\/td>\nModel Y<\/td>\n>375,000<\/td>\nProduction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Texas<\/td>\nModel Y<\/td>\n>250,000<\/td>\nProduction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cybertruck<\/td>\n>125,000<\/td>\nProduction<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cybercab<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nIn development<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nevada<\/td>\nTesla Semi<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nPilot production<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TBD<\/td>\nRoadster<\/td>\n\u2014<\/td>\nIn development<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

In the US, it adds up to 1,025,000 vehicles per year.<\/p>\n

In reality, Tesla\u2019s factories are operating at a much lower capacity. <\/p>\n

Based on sales and inventory from 2024, Tesla is currently building fewer than 50,000 Model S\/X vehicles per year compared to an installed capacity of 100,000 units.<\/p>\n

As for Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is currently building them in the US at a rate of about 600,000 units per year compared to claimed installed capacity of over 800,000 units.<\/p>\n

Finally, the Cybertruck is being produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year compared to an installed capacity of over 125,000 units.<\/p>\n

This adds up to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the US in 2024.<\/p>\n

What will be Tesla\u2019s new capacity?<\/h2>\n

Considering Musk mentioned that it will happen \u201cwithin the next two years\u201d, it is unlikely that he is referring to installed capacity.<\/p>\n

The CEO is most likely talking about Tesla\u2019s actual production, which would also make sense, especially considering he mentioned \u201coutput.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tesla currently outputs roughly 700,000 vehicles per year in the US.<\/p>\n

Doubling that would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it\u2019s not entirely a new plan for Tesla.<\/p>\n

First off, Tesla has already announced plans to unveil two new, more affordable models this year. These models are going to be built on the same production lines as Model 3\/Y, which would potentially enable Tesla to fully utilize its installed capacity for those vehicles.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s another 200,000 units already.<\/p>\n

As already mentioned in Tesla\u2019s installed capacity table, the company is currently developing its production facility for the Tesla Semi electric truck in Nevada.<\/p>\n

Production is expected to start later this year and ramp up next year. Tesla has previously mentioned a goal of 50,000 units per year. It would leave Tesla roughly a year and half to ramp up to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.<\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s the \u201cCybercab\u201d, which was unveiled last year.<\/p>\n

The Cybercab is going to use Tesla\u2019s next-gen vehicle platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.<\/p>\n

Production is expected to start in 2026, and Musk has mentioned a production capacity of \u201cat least 2 million units per year\u201d. However, he said that this would likely come from more than one factory and it\u2019s unclear if the other factory would be in the US.<\/p>\n

Either way, Tesla would need to ramp up Cybercab production in the US to 450,000 units to make Musk\u2019s announcement correct.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s fair to note that all of this was part of Tesla\u2019s plans before the US elections, Trump\u2019s coming into power, or the implementation of any policies whatsoever.<\/p>\n

Electrek\u2019s Take<\/h2>\n

Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It\u2019s just a reiteration of Elon\u2019s plans for Tesla in the US, which were established long before Trump came to power or even before Elon officially backed Trump.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just more \u201ccorporate puffery\u201d as Elon\u2019s lawyers would say.<\/p>\n

Also, if I wasn\u2019t clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt Tesla will have the demand for that, especially if Elon remains involved with the company.<\/p>\n

The Cybercab doesn\u2019t even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn\u2019t solve self-driving, it will be hard to justify producing 450,000 units per year.<\/p>\n

\n

FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.<\/em> More.<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years. What would that look like? Let\u2019s do the math. Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following: \u201cAs a function of the great policies […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8313,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-e-cars"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=81107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81107\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=81107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=81107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/autosector.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=81107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}