As California and Washington move to end sales of new gasoline vehicles, a new study claims all new vehicles in the United States could be made electric by 2035.
The 2035 Report 2.0 from the University of California, Berkeley, also predicts major economic benefits from going electric. It would save households $1,000 annually over the next 30 years, and support a net increase of over 2 million jobs in 2035, according to the study.
The study claims to be “the first study to show how improvements in battery technology, cost, manufacturing scale, and industry ambition will accelerate electrification of cars and trucks.” Its findings predict a much quicker rate of electrification of the U.S. vehicle fleet than previous analyses.
By 2030, the U.S. could make all new-car sales electric, along with over 80% of new truck sales, and power them with 90% clean electricity, the study said. This widespread electrification would also reduce U.S. economy-wide emissions by 35%, according to the study.
That would be partly enabled by favorable cost trends. The study predicts total ownership costs of EVs and internal-combustion engine vehicles will cross paths—and that EV ownership will save money in the long run.
So far, California has moved to end sales of new gasoline cars by calendar-year 2035, while Washington State aims to do so by the 2030 model year. California Senators have pushed the Biden Administration to enact a similar plan nationally, but that’s unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Other indicators point to an advantage for EVs over internal-combustion in at least some manufacturing metrics. EVs actually use less raw material, a study earlier this time suggested—if you include materials that are “lost.” Battery prices have continued to drop as well, bringing EVs closer to cost parity with gasoline and diesel vehicles.
However, consultancy LMC Automotive predicted last year that, in 2030, gasoline will still power seven out of 10 U.S. vehicles.